Lorient’s points vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team
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Through Lorient’s game on Oct 10, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Lorient was 0.44 points over vs a top-half team and 0.42 points under vs a bottom-half team over its last 74 games, 27 games against 32. The plain averages are 1.30 and 1.00, a difference of 0.30. Expected was 0.56 points lower vs a top-half team than vs a bottom-half team. All 3 games without Noah Cadiou were vs a bottom-half team.
Lorient’s +0.86 vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team over expected ranks 3rd of the 119 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 74 games through Oct 10, 2026.
points a game over expected
A +0.86 difference in points over expected vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up once in 100.
A +0.30 difference in points vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2023 | @ Paris Saint-Germain | T | 1 | 0.09 | |
| Aug 20, 2023 | vs Nice | T | 1 | 0.89 | |
| Aug 27, 2023 | vs Lille | W | 3 | 0.66 | |
| Sep 3, 2023 | @ Le Havre AC | L | 0 | 1.14 | |
| Sep 17, 2023 | vs AS Monaco | T | 1 | 0.67 | |
| Sep 23, 2023 | @ Nantes | L | 0 | 1.25 | |
| Oct 1, 2023 | vs Montpellier | L | 0 | 1.21 | |
| Oct 8, 2023 | @ Lyon | T | 1 | 0.73 | |
| Oct 22, 2023 | vs Stade Rennais | W | 3 | 1.01 | |
| Oct 28, 2023 | @ Stade de Reims | L | 0 | 0.85 | |
| Nov 4, 2023 | vs Lens | T | 1 | 0.98 | |
| Nov 12, 2023 | @ Clermont Foot | L | 0 | 1.34 | |
| Nov 26, 2023 | vs Metz | L | 0 | 1.72 | |
| Dec 3, 2023 | @ Toulouse | T | 1 | 0.84 | |
| Dec 10, 2023 | vs Marseille | L | 0 | 1.04 | |
| Dec 17, 2023 | vs Strasbourg | L | 0 | 1.37 | |
| Dec 20, 2023 | @ Brest | L | 0 | 0.45 | |
| Jan 14, 2024 | @Lille | L | 0 | 0.47 | |
| Jan 28, 2024 | vsLe Havre AC | T | 1 | 1.44 | |
| Feb 4, 2024 | @Metz | W | 3 | 1.21 | |
| Feb 11, 2024 | vsStade de Reims | W | 3 | 1.04 | |
| Feb 18, 2024 | @Strasbourg | W | 3 | 0.86 | |
| Feb 24, 2024 | vsNantes | L | 0 | 1.59 | |
| Mar 3, 2024 | @Stade Rennais | W | 3 | 0.66 | |
| Mar 9, 2024 | vsLyon | L | 0 | 1.13 | |
| Mar 17, 2024 | @AS Monaco | T | 1 | 0.33 | |
| Mar 31, 2024 | vsBrest | L | 0 | 0.80 | |
| Apr 7, 2024 | @Montpellier | L | 0 | 0.87 | |
| Apr 19, 2024 | @Nice | L | 0 | 0.60 | |
| Apr 24, 2024 | vsParis Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 0.48 | |
| Apr 28, 2024 | vsToulouse | L | 0 | 1.24 | |
| May 3, 2024 | @Lens | L | 0 | 0.68 | |
| May 12, 2024 | @Marseille | L | 0 | 0.69 | |
| May 19, 2024 | vsClermont Foot | W | 3 | 1.53 | |
| Aug 17, 2025 | @ AJ Auxerre | L | 0 | 1.48 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | vsStade Rennais | W | 3 | 1.15 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsLille | L | 0 | 1.28 | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | @Marseille | L | 0 | 1.12 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @Le Havre AC | T | 1 | 1.31 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsAS Monaco | W | 3 | 1.29 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @ Paris FC | L | 0 | 1.23 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vsBrest | T | 1 | 1.69 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ Angers | L | 0 | 1.46 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vsParis Saint-Germain | T | 1 | 0.82 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @Lens | L | 0 | 0.79 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsToulouse | T | 1 | 1.55 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @Nantes | T | 1 | 1.69 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsNice | W | 3 | 1.71 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vsLyon | W | 3 | 1.18 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @Strasbourg | T | 1 | 1.04 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsMetz | T | 1 | 2.23 | |
| Jan 16, 2026 | @AS Monaco | W | 3 | 0.94 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | @Stade Rennais | W | 3 | 0.80 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsNantes | W | 3 | 1.94 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @Brest | L | 0 | 1.39 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsAngers | W | 3 | 1.66 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Nice | T | 1 | 1.46 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsAJ Auxerre | T | 1 | 1.79 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @Lille | T | 1 | 0.88 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vsLens | W | 3 | 0.99 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @Toulouse | L | 0 | 1.25 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | vsParis FC | T | 1 | 1.53 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | @Lyon | L | 0 | 0.98 | |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vsMarseille | W | 3 | 1.33 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vsStrasbourg | L | 0 | 1.44 | |
| May 2, 2026 | @Paris Saint-Germain | T | 1 | 0.48 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @Metz | W | 3 | 1.78 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsLe Havre AC | L | 0 | 1.71 | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | @Nice | T | 1 | 1.23 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Troyes | L | 0 | 2.06 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Lens | W | 3 | 1.16 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsToulouse | T | 1 | 1.70 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Le Mans | L | 0 | 1.64 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsParis FC | W | 3 | 1.00 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.20 in 2023-24, plus 0.21 in 2025-26, plus 0.25 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 84% in 2023-24, 79% in 2025-26, 43% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 15 games in 2023-24 and 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither vs a top-half team nor vs a bottom-half team, and sit out.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 1, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 10.