Hellas Verona’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Hellas Verona was 0.35 goals under at home and 0.03 goals under away in 2025-26, 19 games against 19. The plain averages are 0.63 and 0.68, a difference of 0.05. Expected was 0.26 goals higher at home than away.
Hellas Verona’s −0.32 at home vs away over expected ranks 88th of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.35
away
−0.03
-1012
A −0.32 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 20 times in 100.
plain
0.63
0.68
0123
A −0.05 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2025 | @ Udinese | T | 1 | 0.75 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | @ Lazio | L | 0 | 0.62 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | vs Cremonese | T | 0 | 1.23 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Juventus | T | 1 | 0.77 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ AS Roma | L | 0 | 0.45 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs Sassuolo | L | 0 | 1.10 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Pisa | T | 0 | 1.26 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs Cagliari | T | 2 | 1.07 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @ Como | L | 1 | 0.38 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs Internazionale | L | 1 | 0.73 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Lecce | T | 0 | 0.82 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Parma | L | 1 | 0.95 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Genoa | L | 1 | 0.81 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Atalanta | W | 3 | 0.71 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | @ Fiorentina | W | 2 | 0.75 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ AC Milan | L | 0 | 0.53 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vs Torino | L | 0 | 1.37 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @ Napoli | T | 2 | 0.51 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vsLazio | L | 0 | 0.88 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | vs Bologna | L | 2 | 0.93 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | @Cremonese | T | 0 | 0.97 | |
| Jan 26, 2026 | vsUdinese | L | 1 | 1.01 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Cagliari | L | 0 | 0.89 | |
| Feb 6, 2026 | vsPisa | T | 0 | 1.52 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @Parma | L | 1 | 0.69 | |
| Feb 20, 2026 | @Sassuolo | L | 0 | 0.84 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | vsNapoli | L | 1 | 0.81 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @Bologna | W | 2 | 0.67 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vsGenoa | L | 0 | 1.11 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | @Atalanta | L | 0 | 0.56 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vsFiorentina | L | 0 | 1.09 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @Torino | L | 1 | 1.07 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vsAC Milan | L | 0 | 0.79 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vsLecce | T | 0 | 1.08 | |
| May 3, 2026 | @Juventus | T | 1 | 0.51 | |
| May 10, 2026 | vsComo | L | 0 | 0.68 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Internazionale | T | 1 | 0.47 | |
| May 24, 2026 | vsAS Roma | L | 0 | 0.71 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.