Girona’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Girona was 0.14 goals under at home and 0.05 goals under away in 2025-26, 19 games against 19. The plain averages are 1.11 and 0.95, a difference of 0.16. Expected was 0.25 goals higher at home than away.
Girona’s −0.10 at home vs away over expected ranks 75th of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.14
away
−0.05
-101
A −0.10 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.11
0.95
0123
A +0.16 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2025 | vs Rayo Vallecano | L | 1 | 1.09 | |
| Aug 24, 2025 | @ Villarreal | L | 0 | 1.05 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Sevilla | L | 0 | 1.47 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ Celta Vigo | T | 1 | 0.92 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Levante | L | 0 | 1.49 | |
| Sep 23, 2025 | @ Athletic Club | T | 1 | 1.10 | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | vs Espanyol | T | 0 | 1.36 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Valencia | W | 2 | 1.28 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Barcelona | L | 1 | 0.78 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Real Oviedo | T | 3 | 1.32 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | @ Getafe | L | 1 | 0.69 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Alavés | W | 1 | 1.34 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ Real Betis | T | 1 | 0.93 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs Real Madrid | T | 1 | 0.94 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ Elche | L | 0 | 1.15 | |
| Dec 12, 2025 | @ Real Sociedad | W | 2 | 1.16 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 1.14 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Mallorca | W | 2 | 1.06 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Osasuna | W | 1 | 1.22 | |
| Jan 16, 2026 | @Espanyol | W | 2 | 1.02 | |
| Jan 26, 2026 | vsGetafe | T | 1 | 0.95 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Real Oviedo | L | 0 | 1.19 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | @Sevilla | T | 1 | 1.17 | |
| Feb 16, 2026 | vsBarcelona | W | 2 | 1.00 | |
| Feb 23, 2026 | @Alavés | T | 2 | 1.04 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsCelta Vigo | L | 1 | 1.18 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @Levante | T | 1 | 1.19 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vsAthletic Club | W | 3 | 1.29 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @Osasuna | L | 0 | 1.00 | |
| Apr 6, 2026 | vsVillarreal | W | 1 | 1.27 | |
| Apr 10, 2026 | @Real Madrid | T | 1 | 0.68 | |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vsReal Betis | L | 2 | 1.15 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | @Valencia | L | 1 | 1.06 | |
| May 1, 2026 | vsMallorca | L | 0 | 1.41 | |
| May 11, 2026 | @Rayo Vallecano | T | 1 | 0.83 | |
| May 14, 2026 | vsReal Sociedad | T | 1 | 1.46 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 0.89 | |
| May 23, 2026 | vsElche | T | 1 | 1.37 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.