Elche’s expected goals at home and away
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Through Elche’s game on Sep 18, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Elche was 0.21 expected goals over at home and 0.29 expected goals under away over its last 45 games, 22 games against 23. The plain averages are 1.37 and 0.67, a difference of 0.70.
Elche’s +0.50 at home vs away over expected ranks 3rd of the 120 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 45 games through Sep 18, 2026.
expected goals a game over expected
at home
+0.21
away
−0.29
-101
A +0.50 difference in expected goals over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
1.37
0.67
012
A +0.70 difference in expected goals at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | xG | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2025 | vs Real Betis | T | 0.58 | 1.16 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | @ Atlético Madrid | T | 0.45 | 0.91 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Levante | W | 1.15 | 1.42 | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | @ Sevilla | T | 0.51 | 0.84 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs Real Oviedo | W | 1.50 | 1.35 | |
| Sep 25, 2025 | @ Osasuna | T | 0.73 | 0.85 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs Celta Vigo | W | 2.57 | 1.07 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ Alavés | L | 0.50 | 0.88 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs Athletic Club | T | 1.26 | 0.88 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Espanyol | L | 0.91 | 1.08 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ Barcelona | L | 0.57 | 0.83 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Real Sociedad | T | 0.91 | 1.33 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Real Madrid | T | 1.56 | 1.08 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Getafe | L | 0.75 | 0.63 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Girona | W | 1.20 | 1.34 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Mallorca | L | 0.36 | 1.10 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Rayo Vallecano | W | 2.19 | 1.10 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Villarreal | L | 1.48 | 1.11 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @ Valencia | T | 0.27 | 0.85 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vsSevilla | T | 1.18 | 1.10 | |
| Jan 23, 2026 | @Levante | L | 0.58 | 1.16 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vsBarcelona | L | 1.42 | 1.08 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | @Real Sociedad | L | 1.37 | 1.02 | |
| Feb 13, 2026 | vsOsasuna | T | 1.65 | 1.10 | |
| Feb 20, 2026 | @Athletic Club | L | 0 | 0.65 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsEspanyol | T | 1.08 | 1.36 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @Villarreal | L | 1.24 | 0.83 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @Real Madrid | L | 1.09 | 0.81 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vsMallorca | W | 1.25 | 1.34 | |
| Apr 3, 2026 | @Rayo Vallecano | L | 0.64 | 0.88 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vsValencia | W | 0.64 | 1.12 | |
| Apr 22, 2026 | vsAtlético Madrid | W | 1.84 | 1.14 | |
| Apr 26, 2026 | @Real Oviedo | W | 0.33 | 1.11 | |
| May 3, 2026 | @Celta Vigo | L | 0.93 | 0.86 | |
| May 9, 2026 | vsAlavés | T | 1.70 | 1.11 | |
| May 12, 2026 | @Real Betis | L | 0.51 | 0.88 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsGetafe | W | 0.63 | 0.92 | |
| May 23, 2026 | @Girona | T | 0.27 | 1.10 | |
| Aug 17, 2026 | @ Deportivo | T | 1.64 | 1.02 | |
| Aug 23, 2026 | vsBarcelona | L | 0.94 | 1.08 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | @ Racing Santander | L | 1.20 | 1.49 | |
| Sep 7, 2026 | vsReal Sociedad | L | 2.29 | 1.37 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Athletic Club | T | 0.03 | 1.20 | |
| Sep 15, 2026 | vsReal Madrid | L | 1.19 | 1.08 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @Espanyol | W | 0.62 | 1.29 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 in 2025-26, plus 0.13 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 86% in 2025-26, 63% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 1, 2026; the games are the ones through Sep 18.