Cremonese’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Cremonese was 0.16 goals under at home and 0.12 goals under away in 2025-26, 19 games against 19. The plain averages are 0.95 and 0.74, a difference of 0.21. Expected was 0.25 goals higher at home than away. All 3 games without Federico Bonazzoli were at home.
Cremonese’s −0.04 at home vs away over expected ranks 68th of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.16
away
−0.12
-1012
A −0.04 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.95
0.74
0123
A +0.21 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2025 | @ AC Milan | W | 2 | 0.59 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Sassuolo | W | 3 | 1.12 | |
| Sep 15, 2025 | @ Hellas Verona | T | 0 | 1.19 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs Parma | T | 0 | 1.14 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Como | T | 1 | 0.52 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Internazionale | L | 1 | 0.61 | |
| Oct 20, 2025 | vs Udinese | T | 1 | 1.16 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Atalanta | T | 1 | 0.92 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @ Genoa | W | 2 | 0.91 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Juventus | L | 1 | 0.92 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @ Pisa | L | 0 | 1.40 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs AS Roma | L | 1 | 0.81 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | @ Bologna | W | 3 | 0.77 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Lecce | W | 2 | 1.14 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Torino | L | 0 | 1.25 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Lazio | T | 0 | 0.77 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs Napoli | L | 0 | 0.99 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Fiorentina | L | 0 | 0.98 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Cagliari | T | 2 | 1.21 | |
| Jan 12, 2026 | @Juventus | L | 0 | 0.69 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vsHellas Verona | T | 0 | 1.45 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @Sassuolo | L | 0 | 0.98 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vsInternazionale | L | 0 | 0.91 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | @Atalanta | L | 1 | 0.66 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsGenoa | T | 0 | 1.26 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @AS Roma | L | 0 | 0.60 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsAC Milan | L | 0 | 0.93 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @Lecce | L | 1 | 0.92 | |
| Mar 16, 2026 | vsFiorentina | L | 1 | 1.19 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | @Parma | W | 2 | 0.79 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | vsBologna | L | 1 | 1.12 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @Cagliari | L | 0 | 1.04 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vsTorino | T | 0 | 1.51 | |
| Apr 24, 2026 | @Napoli | L | 0 | 0.73 | |
| May 4, 2026 | vsLazio | L | 1 | 0.98 | |
| May 10, 2026 | vsPisa | W | 3 | 1.54 | |
| May 17, 2026 | @Udinese | W | 1 | 0.90 | |
| May 24, 2026 | vsComo | L | 1 | 0.78 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.