Bodo/Glimt’s shots conceded at home and away
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Through Bodo/Glimt’s game on Oct 20, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Bodo/Glimt was 6.3 shots under at home and 7.4 shots over away over its last 15 games, 7 games against 8. The plain averages are 12.7 and 26.0, a difference of 13.3.
Bodo/Glimt’s −13.7 at home vs away over expected ranks 123rd of the 123 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 15 games through Oct 20, 2026.
shots conceded a game over expected
at home
−6.3
away
+7.4
-1001020
A −13.7 difference in shots conceded over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
12.7
26.0
102030
A −13.3 difference in shots conceded at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Shots against | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2025 | @ Slavia Prague | T | 26 | 18.3 | |
| Sep 30, 2025 | vs Tottenham Hotspur | T | 8 | 18.2 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | @ Galatasaray | L | 23 | 20.1 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs AS Monaco | L | 9 | 18.5 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Juventus | L | 23 | 19.7 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | @ Borussia Dortmund | T | 22 | 18.5 | |
| Jan 20, 2026 | vs Manchester City | W | 16 | 21.1 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | @ Atlético Madrid | W | 27 | 20.1 | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | vs Internazionale | W | 15 | 21.0 | |
| Feb 24, 2026 | @Internazionale | W | 30 | 22.2 | |
| Mar 11, 2026 | vs Sporting CP | W | 9 | 19.0 | |
| Mar 17, 2026 | @Sporting CP | L | 38 | 16.8 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | @ Bayern Munich | L | 25 | 19.0 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vsBorussia Dortmund | W | 9 | 15.6 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Napoli | L | 17 | 13.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.4 in 2025-26, minus 1.1 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 88% in 2025-26, 65% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 1, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 20.