Bayern Munich’s points after a Champions League game and in other league games
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Bayern Munich was 0.47 points under after a Champions League game and 0.57 points over in other league games in 2025-26, 14 games against 19. The plain averages are 2.07 and 3.00, a difference of 0.93. All 5 games without Joshua Kimmich were in other league games.
Bayern Munich’s −1.04 after a Champions League game vs in other league games over expected ranks 22nd of the 22 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
points a game over expected
A −1.04 difference in points over expected after a Champions League game vs in other league games is rare: shuffle which games were after a Champions League game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −0.93 difference in points after a Champions League game vs in other league games is rare: shuffle which games were after a Champions League game and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2025 | vs RB Leipzig | W | 3 | 2.23 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ FC Augsburg | W | 3 | 2.35 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Hamburg SV | W | 3 | 2.71 | |
| Sep 17, 2025 | vs Chelsea | W | 3 | 2.10 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ TSG Hoffenheim | W | 3 | 1.93 | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | vs Werder Bremen | W | 3 | 2.92 | |
| Sep 30, 2025 | @ Pafos | W | 3 | 2.11 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Eintracht Frankfurt | W | 3 | 2.32 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Borussia Dortmund | W | 3 | 2.08 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vs Club Brugge | W | 3 | 2.35 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Borussia Mönchengladbach | W | 3 | 2.36 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Bayer Leverkusen | W | 3 | 2.22 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Paris Saint-Germain | W | 3 | 1.31 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ 1. FC Union Berlin | T | 1 | 2.47 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs SC Freiburg | W | 3 | 2.58 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | @ Arsenal | L | 0 | 1.18 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs St. Pauli | W | 3 | 3.06 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | @ VfB Stuttgart | W | 3 | 1.88 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | vs Sporting CP | W | 3 | 1.88 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Mainz | T | 1 | 2.77 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | W | 3 | 2.72 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vs VfL Wolfsburg | W | 3 | 2.99 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @ FC Cologne | W | 3 | 2.50 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @RB Leipzig | W | 3 | 1.89 | |
| Jan 21, 2026 | vs Union St.-Gilloise | W | 3 | 2.57 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsFC Augsburg | L | 0 | 2.82 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | @ PSV Eindhoven | W | 3 | 2.06 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | @Hamburg SV | T | 1 | 2.45 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vsTSG Hoffenheim | W | 3 | 2.28 | |
| Feb 14, 2026 | @Werder Bremen | W | 3 | 2.58 | |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vsEintracht Frankfurt | W | 3 | 2.67 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Borussia Dortmund | W | 3 | 1.73 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsBorussia Mönchengladbach | W | 3 | 2.71 | |
| Mar 10, 2026 | @ Atalanta | W | 3 | 2.13 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @Bayer Leverkusen | T | 1 | 1.95 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | vsAtalanta | W | 3 | 2.47 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs1. FC Union Berlin | W | 3 | 2.74 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @SC Freiburg | W | 3 | 2.23 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | @ Real Madrid | W | 3 | 1.68 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @St. Pauli | W | 3 | 2.72 | |
| Apr 15, 2026 | vsReal Madrid | W | 3 | 2.02 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vsVfB Stuttgart | W | 3 | 2.23 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | @Mainz | W | 3 | 2.34 | |
| Apr 28, 2026 | @Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 1.41 | |
| May 2, 2026 | vs1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | T | 1 | 3.15 | |
| May 6, 2026 | vsParis Saint-Germain | T | 1 | 1.72 | |
| May 9, 2026 | @VfL Wolfsburg | W | 3 | 2.65 | |
| May 16, 2026 | vsFC Cologne | W | 3 | 2.85 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.21 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.