AS Roma’s points vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team
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Through AS Roma’s game on Oct 17, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, AS Roma was 0.26 points under vs a top-half team and 0.57 points over vs a bottom-half team over its last 75 games, 29 games against 34. The plain averages are 1.17 and 2.56, a difference of 1.39. All 4 games without Gianluca Mancini were vs a bottom-half team.
AS Roma’s −0.83 vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team over expected ranks 119th of the 119 teams with 5 games on each side over their last 75 games through Oct 17, 2026.
points a game over expected
A −0.83 difference in points over expected vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −1.39 difference in points vs a top-half team and vs a bottom-half team is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-half team and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2024 | @ Hellas Verona | L | 0 | 2.09 | |
| Nov 10, 2024 | vs Bologna | L | 0 | 1.68 | |
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ Napoli | L | 0 | 1.04 | |
| Dec 2, 2024 | vs Atalanta | L | 0 | 1.53 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Lecce | W | 3 | 2.20 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ Como | L | 0 | 1.76 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | vs Parma | W | 3 | 2.04 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | @ AC Milan | T | 1 | 1.43 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs Lazio | W | 3 | 1.50 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @Bologna | T | 1 | 1.39 | |
| Jan 17, 2025 | vs Genoa | W | 3 | 1.93 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @ Udinese | W | 3 | 1.77 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | vsNapoli | T | 1 | 1.24 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | @ Venezia | W | 3 | 1.96 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | @Parma | W | 3 | 1.79 | |
| Feb 24, 2025 | vs Monza | W | 3 | 2.57 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | vsComo | W | 3 | 1.87 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | @ Empoli | W | 3 | 1.94 | |
| Mar 16, 2025 | vs Cagliari | W | 3 | 2.18 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | @Lecce | W | 3 | 1.94 | |
| Apr 6, 2025 | vs Juventus | T | 1 | 1.37 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | @Lazio | T | 1 | 1.34 | |
| Apr 19, 2025 | vsHellas Verona | W | 3 | 2.20 | |
| Apr 27, 2025 | @ Internazionale | W | 3 | 0.85 | |
| May 4, 2025 | vs Fiorentina | W | 3 | 1.57 | |
| May 12, 2025 | @Atalanta | L | 0 | 1.28 | |
| May 18, 2025 | vsAC Milan | W | 3 | 1.60 | |
| May 25, 2025 | @ Torino | W | 3 | 1.63 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vsBologna | W | 3 | 1.88 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Pisa | W | 3 | 2.24 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | vsTorino | L | 0 | 2.22 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @Lazio | W | 3 | 1.48 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vsHellas Verona | W | 3 | 2.52 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @Fiorentina | W | 3 | 1.67 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsInternazionale | L | 0 | 1.47 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | @ Sassuolo | W | 3 | 1.70 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vsParma | W | 3 | 2.02 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @AC Milan | L | 0 | 1.32 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vsUdinese | W | 3 | 2.00 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ Cremonese | W | 3 | 1.95 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vsNapoli | L | 0 | 1.67 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @Cagliari | L | 0 | 1.89 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | vsComo | W | 3 | 1.50 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @Juventus | L | 0 | 1.21 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vsGenoa | W | 3 | 2.13 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | @Atalanta | L | 0 | 1.43 | |
| Jan 6, 2026 | @Lecce | W | 3 | 1.91 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vsSassuolo | W | 3 | 2.05 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @Torino | W | 3 | 1.74 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vsAC Milan | T | 1 | 1.63 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | @Udinese | L | 0 | 1.79 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | vsCagliari | W | 3 | 2.11 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @Napoli | T | 1 | 1.29 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsCremonese | W | 3 | 2.29 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsJuventus | T | 1 | 1.52 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | @Genoa | L | 0 | 1.91 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | @Como | L | 0 | 1.28 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vsLecce | W | 3 | 2.25 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | @Internazionale | L | 0 | 1.12 | |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vsPisa | W | 3 | 2.58 | |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vsAtalanta | T | 1 | 1.73 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | @Bologna | W | 3 | 1.53 | |
| May 4, 2026 | vsFiorentina | W | 3 | 2.02 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @Parma | W | 3 | 1.67 | |
| May 17, 2026 | vsLazio | W | 3 | 1.83 | |
| May 24, 2026 | @Hellas Verona | W | 3 | 2.17 | |
| Aug 24, 2026 | vsFiorentina | W | 3 | 2.10 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | @Lecce | W | 3 | 1.88 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAtalanta | W | 3 | 1.84 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | @ Fenerbahce | T | 1 | 1.89 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | @Torino | W | 3 | 1.63 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsInternazionale | T | 1 | 1.56 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @Como | T | 1 | 1.26 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Real Madrid | L | 0 | 1.10 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsGenoa | W | 3 | 1.85 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.14 in 2024-25, plus 0.21 in 2025-26, plus 0.25 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% in 2024-25, 79% in 2025-26, 43% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 12 games in 2025-26 and 2026-27 are neither vs a top-half team nor vs a bottom-half team, and sit out.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 1, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 17.