1. FC Heidenheim 1846’s goals at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 was 0.03 goals under at home and 0.08 goals under away in 2025-26, 17 games against 17. The plain averages are 1.35 and 1.06, a difference of 0.29.
1. FC Heidenheim 1846’s +0.05 at home vs away over expected ranks 56th of the 103 teams with 5 games on each side in 2025-26.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.03
away
−0.08
-1012
A +0.05 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.35
1.06
0123
A +0.29 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs VfL Wolfsburg | L | 1 | 1.74 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ RB Leipzig | L | 0 | 1.03 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Borussia Dortmund | L | 0 | 1.13 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Hamburg SV | L | 1 | 1.11 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs FC Augsburg | W | 2 | 1.50 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @ VfB Stuttgart | L | 0 | 1.08 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Werder Bremen | T | 2 | 1.46 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ TSG Hoffenheim | L | 1 | 1.10 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | T | 1 | 1.71 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Bayer Leverkusen | L | 0 | 0.96 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | L | 0 | 1.40 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ 1. FC Union Berlin | W | 2 | 1.16 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs SC Freiburg | W | 2 | 1.41 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ St. Pauli | L | 1 | 1.24 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | vs Bayern Munich | L | 0 | 1.03 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs FC Cologne | T | 2 | 1.55 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | @ Mainz | L | 1 | 1.09 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | @VfL Wolfsburg | T | 1 | 1.47 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vsRB Leipzig | L | 0 | 1.29 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @Borussia Dortmund | L | 2 | 0.79 | |
| Feb 7, 2026 | vsHamburg SV | L | 0 | 1.42 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @FC Augsburg | L | 0 | 1.33 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsVfB Stuttgart | T | 3 | 1.20 | |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @Werder Bremen | L | 0 | 1.30 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsTSG Hoffenheim | L | 2 | 1.31 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | @Eintracht Frankfurt | L | 0 | 1.49 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vsBayer Leverkusen | T | 3 | 1.09 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | @Borussia Mönchengladbach | T | 2 | 1.04 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs1. FC Union Berlin | W | 3 | 1.38 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | @SC Freiburg | L | 1 | 1.20 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vsSt. Pauli | W | 2 | 1.45 | |
| May 2, 2026 | @Bayern Munich | T | 3 | 0.65 | |
| May 10, 2026 | @FC Cologne | W | 3 | 1.24 | |
| May 16, 2026 | vsMainz | L | 0 | 1.40 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.16 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.