Vitinha’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Vitinha was 0.09 goals over at home and 0.29 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 6. The plain averages are 0.20 and 0.33, a difference of 0.13. Both league games after a Champions League game were away.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.09
away
+0.29
00.5
A −0.19 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.20
0.33
00.51
A −0.13 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Stade Rennais | T | 0 | 0.07 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | @ Lille | T | 1 | 0.04 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs AS Monaco | L | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs Slovan Bratislava | W | 0 | 0.15 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Brest | W | 0 | 0.01 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Marseille | W | 0 | 0.01 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Le Mans | W | 0 | 0.15 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ Manchester City | W | 1 | 0.02 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Strasbourg | W | 0 | 0.13 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Barcelona | W | 1 | 0.12 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs Lyon | W | 0 | 0.03 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 38%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.