Thorgan Hazard’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Thorgan Hazard was 0.09 goals over at home and 0.32 goals under away in 2026-27, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.33 and 0.00, a difference of 0.33.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.09
away
−0.32
-0.500.5
A +0.41 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 5 times in 100.
plain
0.33
0.00
00.51
A +0.33 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | vs AJ Auxerre | W | 0 | 0.32 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Strasbourg | L | 0 | 0.36 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Lorient | L | 0 | 0.26 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Le Mans | T | 0 | 0.36 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ AS Monaco | L | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Club Brugge | L | 0 | 0.62 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Paris FC | W | 1 | 0.15 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @ Lille | L | 0 | 0.18 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.