Thibaut Courtois’ goals prevented at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Thibaut Courtois was 0.36 goals over at home and 0.25 goals under away in 2026-27, 7 games against 6. The plain averages are 0.36 and -0.25, a difference of 0.60. Both games vs bottom-half teams were away. Both league games after a Champions League game were at home.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
+0.36
away
−0.25
-10
A +0.60 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 17 times in 100.
plain
0.36
-0.25
-10
A +0.60 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 18 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | @ Espanyol | W | 0.16 | -0.00 | |
| Aug 26, 2026 | vs Real Sociedad | W | -0.28 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | vs Málaga | W | 0.24 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Real Betis | L | 0.07 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | vs Internazionale | W | 0.43 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Rayo Vallecano | W | 0.08 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 15, 2026 | @ Elche | W | -1.18 | -0.00 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Atlético Madrid | L | 0.85 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Villarreal | W | 0.95 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ AS Roma | W | -1.64 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Sevilla | W | 0.74 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs RB Leipzig | W | 0.34 | -0.00 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ Racing Santander | W | 0.26 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.