Terem Moffi’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Terem Moffi was 0.40 goals under at home and 0.08 goals over away in 2026-27, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.00 and 0.40, a difference of 0.40.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.40
away
+0.08
-0.500.5
A −0.48 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 15 times in 100.
plain
0.00
0.40
00.51
A −0.40 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Borussia Dortmund | L | 0 | 0.05 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Mainz | L | 0 | 0.51 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ RB Leipzig | L | 0 | 0.46 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs FC Cologne | W | 0 | 0.28 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ TSG Hoffenheim | W | 1 | 0.44 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs VfB Stuttgart | W | 0 | 0.41 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ SC Paderborn 07 | L | 0 | 0.20 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ Eintracht Frankfurt | L | 1 | 0.44 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 50%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.