Sergio Herrera’s goals prevented at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Sergio Herrera was 0.17 goals over at home and 1.54 goals under away in 2026-27, 3 games against 2. The plain averages are 0.17 and -1.54, a difference of 1.71.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
+0.17
away
−1.54
-2-10
A +1.71 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 11 times in 100.
plain
0.17
-1.54
-2-10
A +1.71 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 11 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | vs Levante | T | 0.22 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | @ Celta Vigo | W | -0.72 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | vs Getafe | W | 0.72 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Alavés | L | -2.36 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Espanyol | L | -0.42 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 0%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.