Sergio Canales’ goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Sergio Canales was 0.07 goals under at home and 0.16 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.00 and 0.20, a difference of 0.20.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.07
away
+0.16
00.5
A −0.23 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 9 times in 100.
plain
0.00
0.20
00.51
A −0.20 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | vs Villarreal | T | 0 | 0.08 | |
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Getafe | L | 0 | 0.02 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | vs Elche | W | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Rayo Vallecano | L | 1 | 0.04 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Alavés | W | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Sep 16, 2026 | @ Barcelona | L | 0 | 0.06 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Celta Vigo | L | 0 | 0.02 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs Valencia | T | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ Osasuna | L | 0 | 0.08 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Espanyol | W | 0 | 0.07 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Real Madrid | L | 0 | 0.07 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 25%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.