Serge Gnabry’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Serge Gnabry was 0.05 goals under at home and 0.41 goals over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 0.00 and 0.50, a difference of 0.50.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.05
away
+0.41
00.5
A −0.47 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.00
0.50
00.51
A −0.50 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs 1. FC Union Berlin | W | 0 | 0.07 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ FC Augsburg | T | 0 | 0.11 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs RB Leipzig | W | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs Arsenal | T | 0 | 0.02 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ SC Freiburg | W | 1 | 0.06 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Borussia Dortmund | T | 0 | 0.03 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 13%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.