Ruben Aguilar’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defenders, Ruben Aguilar was 0.02 goals under at home and 0.23 goals over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 7. The plain averages are 0.00 and 0.29, a difference of 0.29.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.02
away
+0.23
00.51
A −0.25 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.00
0.29
00.51
A −0.29 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Strasbourg | L | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Lorient | L | 0 | 0.06 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | @ Slavia Prague | W | 1 | -0.01 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Le Mans | T | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ AS Monaco | L | 0 | 0.05 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Lyon | W | 0 | 0.01 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Sporting CP | L | 0 | 0.01 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Troyes | W | 1 | 0.05 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Club Brugge | L | 0 | -0.01 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Paris FC | W | 0 | 0.01 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @ Lille | L | 0 | 0.14 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defenders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.01 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defenders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defenders’ goals in his games, 50%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 82% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.