Rayan Cherki’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Rayan Cherki was 0.07 goals over at home and 0.41 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.33 and 0.60, a difference of 0.27. Both league games after a Champions League game were away.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.07
away
+0.41
01
A −0.34 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.33
0.60
00.511.52
A −0.27 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs AFC Bournemouth | W | 0 | 0.33 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | @ Crystal Palace | W | 2 | 0.27 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Coventry City | W | 0 | 0.33 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | @ FC Porto | W | 0 | 0.31 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Manchester United | W | 0 | 0.18 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Sunderland | W | 1 | 0.25 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Liverpool | W | 1 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 0.19 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs AEK Athens | W | 1 | 0.38 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Aston Villa | L | 0 | 0.12 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | L | 0 | 0.12 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 50%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.