Rasmus Højlund’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Rasmus Højlund was 0.04 goals under at home and 0.05 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 6. The plain averages are 0.17 and 0.33, a difference of 0.17. Both games vs top-half teams were at home. Both games vs bottom-half teams were away.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.04
away
+0.05
-0.500.5
A −0.08 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.17
0.33
00.51
A −0.17 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | @ Genoa | W | 0 | 0.21 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | vs Como | L | 1 | 0.21 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Internazionale | L | 1 | 0.21 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs Arsenal | L | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs Bologna | W | 0 | 0.23 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Fiorentina | T | 0 | 0.50 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Frosinone | W | 0 | 0.23 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Villarreal | L | 0 | 0.24 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Venezia | L | 0 | 0.40 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Bodo/Glimt | W | 0 | 0.21 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs AS Roma | T | 0 | 0.24 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ Monza | W | 1 | 0.17 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 43%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.