Raphinha’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Raphinha was 1.46 goals over at home and 0.75 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 6. The plain averages are 1.83 and 1.00, a difference of 0.83.
goals a game over expected
at home
+1.46
away
+0.75
012
A +0.71 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.83
1.00
0123
A +0.83 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Elche | W | 2 | 0.28 | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | vs Athletic Club | W | 1 | 0.17 | |
| Aug 31, 2026 | vs Rayo Vallecano | W | 2 | 0.47 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Valencia | W | 1 | 0.12 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs Feyenoord Rotterdam | W | 2 | 0.43 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Levante | W | 0 | 0.44 | |
| Sep 16, 2026 | vs Racing Santander | W | 3 | 0.55 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Sevilla | W | 3 | 0.28 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Real Betis | W | 0 | 0.15 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 0.21 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Real Madrid | L | 1 | 0.28 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Alavés | W | 2 | 0.35 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 47%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.