Randal Kolo Muani’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Randal Kolo Muani was 0.09 goals under at home and 0.08 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.00 and 0.20, a difference of 0.20. Both games vs bottom-half teams were away.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.09
away
+0.08
00.5
A −0.18 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.00
0.20
00.51
A −0.20 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Frosinone | W | 0 | 0.07 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Parma | W | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs AC Milan | T | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Sassuolo | L | 0 | 0.20 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Atalanta | W | 0 | 0.08 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Cagliari | T | 1 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Lazio | L | 0 | 0.08 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Lecce | W | 0 | 0.16 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ Genoa | L | 0 | 0.07 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Napoli | W | 0 | 0.11 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 14%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.