Pio Esposito’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Pio Esposito was 0.24 goals over at home and 0.07 goals under away in 2026-27, 6 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.33 and 0.00, a difference of 0.33.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.24
away
−0.07
00.5
A +0.31 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.33
0.00
00.51
A +0.33 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | vs Monza | W | 1 | 0.08 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @ Cagliari | W | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Napoli | W | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | vs Udinese | W | 1 | 0.10 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ AS Roma | T | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Parma | W | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Club Brugge | L | 0 | 0.06 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Bologna | W | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Fiorentina | W | 0 | 0.15 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ Venezia | W | 0 | 0.12 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ AC Milan | L | 0 | 0.07 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 13%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.