Phil Foden’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Phil Foden was 0.52 goals over at home and 0.22 goals under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.80 and 0.00, a difference of 0.80. Both games vs top-half teams were at home.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.52
away
−0.22
012
A +0.74 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.80
0.00
0123
A +0.80 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs AFC Bournemouth | W | 0 | 0.33 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | @ Crystal Palace | W | 0 | 0.27 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Coventry City | W | 0 | 0.33 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | @ FC Porto | W | 0 | 0.31 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Manchester United | W | 0 | 0.18 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Ipswich Town | W | 1 | 0.25 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs AEK Athens | W | 3 | 0.38 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Aston Villa | L | 0 | 0.12 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | L | 0 | 0.12 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 50%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.