Nuno Tavares’ goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defenders, Nuno Tavares was 0.11 goals over at home and 0.06 goals under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.20 and 0.00, a difference of 0.20.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.11
away
−0.06
00.5
A +0.17 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.20
0.00
00.51
A +0.20 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | @ Bologna | W | 0 | 0.06 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | vs Genoa | W | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Sep 7, 2026 | @ Udinese | W | 0 | 0.15 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs AC Milan | T | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Venezia | W | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs Monza | W | 1 | 0.16 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ Juventus | W | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Parma | W | 0 | 0.07 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ Sassuolo | W | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Cagliari | W | 0 | 0.10 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defenders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.01 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defenders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defenders’ goals in his games, 33%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 82% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.