Moussa Diaby’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Moussa Diaby was 0.11 goals under at home and 0.22 goals over away in 2026-27, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 0.00 and 0.33, a difference of 0.33.
3 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.11
away
+0.22
00.5
A −0.33 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.00
0.33
00.51
A −0.33 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs 1. FC Union Berlin | W | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ FC Augsburg | T | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs RB Leipzig | W | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Mainz | W | 1 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs SC Freiburg | W | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ TSG Hoffenheim | L | 0 | 0.16 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 14%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.