Michael Olise’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Michael Olise was 1.20 goals over at home and 0.04 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 5. The plain averages are 1.40 and 0.20, a difference of 1.20.
goals a game over expected
at home
+1.20
away
+0.04
012
A +1.17 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 9 times in 100.
plain
1.40
0.20
0123
A +1.20 difference in goals at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 9 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | vs VfB Stuttgart | W | 1 | 0.10 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Schalke 04 | T | 0 | 0.16 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Bodo/Glimt | W | 2 | 0.38 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ SV Elversberg | W | 0 | 0.21 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs 1. FC Union Berlin | W | 3 | 0.23 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ FC Augsburg | T | 0 | 0.06 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Viking FK | T | 0 | 0.31 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs RB Leipzig | W | 1 | 0.17 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ SC Freiburg | W | 1 | 0.06 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Borussia Dortmund | T | 0 | 0.10 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 50%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.