Matías Dituro’s goals prevented at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Matías Dituro was 0.73 goals under at home and 0.54 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 6. The plain averages are -0.73 and 0.54, a difference of 1.27.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
−0.73
away
+0.54
-101
A −1.27 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
plain
-0.73
0.54
-101
A −1.27 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | @ Deportivo | T | -0.33 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs Barcelona | L | -1.92 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | @ Racing Santander | L | -0.58 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 7, 2026 | vs Real Sociedad | L | -1.72 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Athletic Club | T | 0.72 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 15, 2026 | vs Real Madrid | L | -0.22 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Espanyol | W | 0.64 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs Celta Vigo | T | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Villarreal | T | 1.65 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Rayo Vallecano | W | 1.14 | 0.00 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Valencia | L | 0.19 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 0%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.