Mathew Ryan’s goals prevented at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Mathew Ryan was 0.42 goals under at home and 0.13 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 6. The plain averages are -0.42 and 0.13, a difference of 0.55.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
−0.42
away
+0.13
-101
A −0.55 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
-0.42
0.13
-101
A −0.55 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | @ Espanyol | L | -0.70 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 24, 2026 | @ Osasuna | T | 1.24 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Real Betis | W | 0.25 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Málaga | T | 0.51 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs Barcelona | L | -1.15 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Villarreal | L | -0.16 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs Sevilla | T | -0.84 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @ Deportivo | T | 0.27 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs Athletic Club | W | 0.60 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Real Sociedad | L | -0.41 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Atlético Madrid | L | -0.97 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 0%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.