Marquinhos’ goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defenders, Marquinhos was 0.43 goals over at home and 0.27 goals over away in 2026-27, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.50 and 0.40, a difference of 0.10.
2 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.43
away
+0.27
00.5
A +0.16 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.50
0.40
00.51
A +0.10 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Stade Rennais | T | 0 | 0.22 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | @ Lille | T | 1 | 0.16 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs AS Monaco | L | 1 | 0.09 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Brest | W | 0 | 0.08 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Marseille | W | 1 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ Manchester City | W | 0 | 0.05 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Barcelona | W | 0 | 0.06 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defenders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.01 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defenders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defenders’ goals in his games, 75%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 82% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.