Mariano Díaz’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Mariano Díaz was 0.09 goals over at home and 0.12 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.33 and 0.40, a difference of 0.07.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.09
away
+0.12
-0.500.5
A −0.03 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.33
0.40
00.51
A −0.07 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | vs Getafe | W | 1 | 0.21 | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | @ Rayo Vallecano | T | 1 | 0.41 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | vs Villarreal | W | 0 | 0.24 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Osasuna | W | 1 | 0.33 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Racing Santander | L | 0 | 0.52 | |
| Sep 15, 2026 | vs Valencia | L | 0 | 0.24 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Athletic Club | T | 0 | 0.11 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ Celta Vigo | L | 0 | 0.18 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs Málaga | T | 0 | 0.30 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Barcelona | L | 1 | 0.16 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 36%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.