Marcus Thuram’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Marcus Thuram was 0.44 goals over at home and 0.01 goals under away in 2026-27, 6 games against 6. The plain averages are 0.67 and 0.17, a difference of 0.50.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.44
away
−0.01
00.5
A +0.46 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 12 times in 100.
plain
0.67
0.17
00.51
A +0.50 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | @ Cagliari | W | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Napoli | W | 1 | 0.23 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | @ Real Madrid | L | 0 | 0.17 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | vs Udinese | W | 1 | 0.27 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ AS Roma | T | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Parma | W | 1 | 0.23 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Club Brugge | L | 0 | 0.16 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Bologna | W | 1 | 0.07 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs Shakhtar Donetsk | W | 0 | 0.02 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Fiorentina | W | 1 | 0.41 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ Venezia | W | 0 | 0.31 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ AC Milan | L | 0 | 0.19 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 33%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.