Marc Guéhi’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defenders, Marc Guéhi was 0.10 goals over at home and 0.07 goals under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.20 and 0.00, a difference of 0.20.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.10
away
−0.07
00.5
A +0.17 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.20
0.00
00.51
A +0.20 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs AFC Bournemouth | W | 1 | 0.06 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | @ Crystal Palace | W | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Coventry City | W | 0 | 0.16 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | @ FC Porto | W | 0 | -0.01 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Manchester United | W | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Sunderland | W | 0 | 0.11 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Liverpool | W | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | L | 0 | 0.08 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Ipswich Town | W | 0 | 0.11 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Aston Villa | L | 0 | 0.11 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defenders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.01 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defenders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defenders’ goals in his games, 50%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 82% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.