Lukas Hradecky’s goals prevented at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Lukas Hradecky was 0.26 goals over at home and 0.91 goals over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.26 and 0.91, a difference of 0.65.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
+0.26
away
+0.91
00.511.5
A −0.64 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.26
0.91
00.511.5
A −0.65 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Le Havre AC | W | 1.03 | -0.00 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | vs Marseille | W | 0.88 | 0.01 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Paris Saint-Germain | W | 1.81 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Strasbourg | T | 0.55 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs Lens | W | 0.20 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Toulouse | T | 0.06 | -0.01 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ Lorient | L | 0.80 | -0.00 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Lille | T | -0.09 | -0.00 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ Paris FC | L | 0.35 | -0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 100%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.