Luis Díaz’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Luis Díaz was 0.59 goals over at home and 0.08 goals under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.80 and 0.25, a difference of 0.55.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.59
away
−0.08
012
A +0.68 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.80
0.25
0123
A +0.55 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | vs VfB Stuttgart | W | 1 | 0.28 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Schalke 04 | T | 0 | 0.20 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Bodo/Glimt | W | 0 | 0.19 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ SV Elversberg | W | 0 | 0.34 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs 1. FC Union Berlin | W | 0 | 0.21 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ FC Augsburg | T | 0 | 0.34 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Viking FK | T | 1 | 0.45 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs RB Leipzig | W | 3 | 0.28 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs Arsenal | T | 0 | 0.06 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 38%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.