Lautaro Martínez’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Lautaro Martínez was 0.62 goals over at home and 0.36 goals over away in 2026-27, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 1.00 and 0.67, a difference of 0.33. Both second-half games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.62
away
+0.36
01
A +0.26 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.00
0.67
00.511.52
A +0.33 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | vs Monza | W | 0 | 0.38 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @ Cagliari | W | 0 | 0.45 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Napoli | W | 2 | 0.42 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | @ Real Madrid | L | 0 | 0.30 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ AS Roma | T | 2 | 0.16 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Parma | W | 0 | 0.42 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Club Brugge | L | 2 | 0.29 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 60%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.