Kylian Mbappé’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Kylian Mbappé was 0.92 goals over at home and 0.37 goals over away in 2026-27, 7 games against 7. The plain averages are 1.43 and 0.71, a difference of 0.71. Both games vs bottom-half teams were away.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.92
away
+0.37
012
A +0.54 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.43
0.71
0123
A +0.71 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | @ Espanyol | W | 0 | 0.37 | |
| Aug 26, 2026 | vs Real Sociedad | W | 3 | 0.46 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | vs Málaga | W | 1 | 0.51 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Real Betis | L | 0 | 0.27 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | vs Internazionale | W | 1 | 0.44 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Rayo Vallecano | W | 2 | 0.74 | |
| Sep 15, 2026 | @ Elche | W | 1 | 0.42 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 0.19 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Villarreal | W | 0 | 0.41 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ AS Roma | W | 1 | 0.13 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Sevilla | W | 2 | 0.46 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs RB Leipzig | W | 1 | 0.57 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Barcelona | W | 2 | 0.23 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ Racing Santander | W | 1 | 0.79 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 63%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.