Julián Álvarez’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Julián Álvarez was 0.04 goals over at home and 0.07 goals under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 6. The plain averages are 0.25 and 0.17, a difference of 0.08. Both games vs bottom-half teams were away.
4 games at home is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.04
away
−0.07
00.5
A +0.11 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.25
0.17
00.51
A +0.08 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs Villarreal | T | 0 | 0.22 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Athletic Club | L | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | @ Liverpool | L | 0 | 0.23 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Real Madrid | W | 0 | 0.20 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Alavés | W | 0 | 0.34 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Manchester United | W | 0 | 0.23 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Espanyol | W | 0 | 0.22 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ VfB Stuttgart | T | 1 | 0.20 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Deportivo | W | 1 | 0.21 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Levante | W | 0 | 0.36 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 33%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.