Jude Bellingham’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Jude Bellingham was 0.12 goals over at home and 0.19 goals over away in 2026-27, 7 games against 7. The plain averages are 0.29 and 0.29, a difference of 0.00. Expected was 0.07 goals higher at home than away. Both games vs bottom-half teams were away.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.12
away
+0.19
00.5
A −0.07 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.29
0.29
00.51
A 0.00 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | @ Espanyol | W | 1 | 0.03 | |
| Aug 26, 2026 | vs Real Sociedad | W | 0 | 0.18 | |
| Aug 30, 2026 | vs Málaga | W | 1 | 0.21 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Real Betis | L | 0 | 0.16 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | vs Internazionale | W | 0 | 0.18 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Rayo Vallecano | W | 1 | 0.13 | |
| Sep 15, 2026 | @ Elche | W | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Atlético Madrid | L | 0 | 0.06 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Villarreal | W | 0 | 0.17 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ AS Roma | W | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Sevilla | W | 0 | 0.15 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs RB Leipzig | W | 0 | 0.15 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Barcelona | W | 0 | 0.13 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ Racing Santander | W | 1 | 0.12 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 44%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.