Ivan Provedel’s goals prevented at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Ivan Provedel was 0.71 goals under at home and 0.68 goals over away in 2026-27, 1 game against 1. The plain averages are -0.71 and 0.68, a difference of 1.39.
One game at home is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
−0.71
away
+0.68
-0.500.5
plain
-0.71
0.68
-0.500.5
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Fiorentina | W | -0.71 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ Venezia | W | 0.68 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 0%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.