Isco’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Isco was 0.40 goals over at home and 0.10 goals under away in 2026-27, 7 games against 6. The plain averages are 0.57 and 0.00, a difference of 0.57. Both games vs top-half teams were away. All 3 games vs bottom-half teams were at home.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.40
away
−0.10
01
A +0.50 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.57
0.00
00.511.52
A +0.57 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | vs Real Sociedad | W | 0 | 0.19 | |
| Aug 25, 2026 | @ Valencia | W | 0 | 0.16 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Levante | L | 0 | 0.04 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Real Madrid | W | 0 | 0.16 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | @ Lille | W | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | @ Villarreal | W | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vs Getafe | W | 0 | 0.12 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ Deportivo | T | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs Osasuna | W | 2 | 0.17 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs FC Porto | W | 1 | 0.23 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs Feyenoord Rotterdam | W | 1 | 0.04 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Celta Vigo | T | 0 | 0.04 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Málaga | W | 0 | 0.31 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 57%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.