Hassane Kamara’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed defenders, Hassane Kamara was 0.08 goals over at home and 0.15 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.17 and 0.25, a difference of 0.08. Both games vs top-half teams were at home.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.08
away
+0.15
00.5
A −0.07 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.17
0.25
00.51
A −0.08 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | vs Como | T | 1 | 0.04 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Monza | W | 1 | 0.22 | |
| Sep 7, 2026 | vs Lazio | L | 0 | 0.05 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | @ Internazionale | L | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Cagliari | L | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | @ Torino | L | 0 | 0.04 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Lecce | L | 0 | 0.05 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs AC Milan | L | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ Parma | T | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs AS Roma | L | 0 | 0.07 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed defenders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.01 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for defenders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s defenders’ goals in his games, 50%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 82% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.