Harry Kane’s goals at home and away
, ,
Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Harry Kane was 0.56 goals over at home and 0.15 goals over away in 2026-27, 6 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.83 and 0.60, a difference of 0.23.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.56
away
+0.15
01
A +0.41 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.83
0.60
00.511.52
A +0.23 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | vs VfB Stuttgart | W | 0 | 0.42 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Schalke 04 | T | 0 | 0.30 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Bodo/Glimt | W | 1 | 0.28 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ SV Elversberg | W | 1 | 0.50 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vs 1. FC Union Berlin | W | 2 | 0.31 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ FC Augsburg | T | 0 | 0.50 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Viking FK | T | 2 | 0.67 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs RB Leipzig | W | 1 | 0.42 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs Arsenal | T | 1 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ SC Freiburg | W | 0 | 0.30 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Borussia Dortmund | T | 0 | 0.14 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 57%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.