Guglielmo Vicario’s goals prevented at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Guglielmo Vicario was 0.27 goals under at home and 0.02 goals under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 5. The plain averages are -0.27 and -0.02, a difference of 0.25. Both games vs bottom-half teams were away.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
−0.27
away
−0.02
-2-101
A −0.25 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
-0.27
-0.02
-2-101
A −0.25 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Frosinone | W | 0.45 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Parma | W | 0.92 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs AC Milan | T | -0.71 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Sassuolo | L | -0.65 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Atalanta | W | 0.24 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Cagliari | T | 0.01 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Lazio | L | -2.03 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ Lecce | W | 1.18 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ Genoa | L | -1.10 | 0.00 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Napoli | W | 0.22 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 0%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.