Giovanni Simeone’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Giovanni Simeone was 0.17 goals under at home and 0.21 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.00 and 0.40, a difference of 0.40.
goals a game over expected
at home
−0.17
away
+0.21
01
A −0.38 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.00
0.40
00.511.52
A −0.40 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs AC Milan | L | 0 | 0.16 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Sassuolo | L | 0 | 0.40 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Fiorentina | W | 0 | 0.27 | |
| Sep 14, 2026 | vs AS Roma | L | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Bologna | T | 0 | 0.07 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs Udinese | W | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Oct 19, 2026 | @ Parma | W | 2 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs Monza | W | 0 | 0.18 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs Como | L | 0 | 0.12 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ Frosinone | L | 0 | 0.12 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 25%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.