Gianluigi Donnarumma’s goals prevented at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed goalkeepers, Gianluigi Donnarumma was 0.12 goals under at home and 0.07 goals over away in 2026-27, 7 games against 5. The plain averages are -0.12 and 0.07, a difference of 0.19.
goals prevented a game over expected
at home
−0.12
away
+0.07
-2-101
A −0.19 difference in goals prevented over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
-0.12
0.07
-2-101
A −0.19 difference in goals prevented at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | Prevented | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | vs AFC Bournemouth | W | 0.67 | 0.00 | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | @ Crystal Palace | W | 0.08 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Coventry City | W | 1.07 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 8, 2026 | @ FC Porto | W | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Manchester United | W | 0.40 | 0.00 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Sunderland | W | -0.40 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Liverpool | W | 1.27 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Paris Saint-Germain | L | -2.06 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Ipswich Town | W | -0.19 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs AEK Athens | W | 0.01 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Aston Villa | L | -1.42 | 0.00 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | L | 0.06 | 0.00 |
Method
- Expected goals are this site’s model of each shot’s chance, from where it was taken, whether it was a header, and how it was set up (a cross, a through ball, a headed pass, or no pass at all), fit on the 105,024 non-penalty shots of the five leagues and the Champions League since 2024-25 and within 3% of the goals scored in each season. Penalties are left out.
- Expected is what the opponent allowed goalkeepers in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.00 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for goalkeepers that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s goalkeepers’ goals prevented in his games, 0%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about -1% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.