Gabriel Jesus’ goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Gabriel Jesus was 0.49 goals over at home and 0.17 goals over away in 2026-27, 5 games against 4. The plain averages are 0.60 and 0.25, a difference of 0.35.
4 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.49
away
+0.17
00.5
A +0.32 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.60
0.25
00.51
A +0.35 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Valencia | W | 0 | 0.04 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs Feyenoord Rotterdam | W | 1 | 0.13 | |
| Sep 16, 2026 | vs Racing Santander | W | 1 | 0.17 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Sevilla | W | 0 | 0.08 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Getafe | W | 1 | 0.07 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | @ Galatasaray | W | 0 | 0.17 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Real Betis | W | 1 | 0.04 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Real Madrid | L | 0 | 0.08 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Alavés | W | 0 | 0.11 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 14%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.