Francisco Conceição’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Francisco Conceição was 0.12 goals over at home and 0.17 goals under away in 2026-27, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 0.25 and 0.00, a difference of 0.25.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.12
away
−0.17
00.5
A +0.29 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.25
0.00
00.51
A +0.25 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Frosinone | W | 0 | 0.10 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Parma | W | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs AC Milan | T | 0 | 0.14 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Sassuolo | L | 0 | 0.28 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs Atalanta | W | 1 | 0.12 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ Cagliari | T | 0 | 0.13 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs Lazio | L | 0 | 0.11 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 20%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.