Florian Wirtz’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Florian Wirtz was 0.10 goals over at home and 0.06 goals under away in 2026-27, 7 games against 5. The plain averages are 0.14 and 0.00, a difference of 0.14.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.10
away
−0.06
00.5
A +0.15 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.14
0.00
00.51
A +0.14 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | @ Newcastle United | T | 0 | 0.04 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs Nottingham Forest | T | 0 | 0.08 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Ipswich Town | W | 0 | 0.07 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | vs Atlético Madrid | W | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Fulham | T | 0 | 0.04 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ AFC Bournemouth | W | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs Manchester City | L | 0 | 0.05 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | @ LASK Linz | W | 0 | 0.05 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Brentford | W | 0 | 0.03 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs Villarreal | W | 1 | 0.04 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | vs Brighton & Hove Albion | W | 0 | 0.04 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs Arsenal | L | 0 | 0.04 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 17%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.