Florian Thauvin’s goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed forwards, Florian Thauvin was 0.29 goals over at home and 0.10 goals under away in 2026-27, 5 games against 7. The plain averages are 0.60 and 0.29, a difference of 0.31.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.29
away
−0.10
01
A +0.39 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.60
0.29
00.511.52
A +0.31 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | vs AJ Auxerre | W | 2 | 0.60 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Strasbourg | L | 1 | 0.44 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Lorient | L | 0 | 0.20 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | @ Slavia Prague | W | 1 | 0.53 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ Le Mans | T | 0 | 0.39 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ AS Monaco | L | 0 | 0.20 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Lyon | W | 0 | 0.22 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Sporting CP | L | 0 | 0.22 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Troyes | W | 0 | 0.25 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Club Brugge | L | 0 | 0.72 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Paris FC | W | 1 | 0.32 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @ Lille | L | 0 | 0.17 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed forwards in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.09 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for forwards that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s forwards’ goals in his games, 45%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 83% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.