Florian Neuhaus’ goals at home and away
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Against his share of what his opponents usually allowed midfielders, Florian Neuhaus was 0.18 goals over at home and 0.08 goals under away in 2026-27, 3 games against 2. The plain averages are 0.33 and 0.00, a difference of 0.33.
2 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
goals a game over expected
at home
+0.18
away
−0.08
00.5
A +0.26 difference in goals over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.33
0.00
00.51
A +0.33 difference in goals at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | goals | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Mainz | L | 1 | 0.22 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | @ FC Cologne | L | 0 | 0.11 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs TSG Hoffenheim | L | 0 | 0.09 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ VfB Stuttgart | W | 0 | 0.05 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs SC Paderborn 07 | T | 0 | 0.15 |
Method
- Expected is what the opponent allowed midfielders in its other 2026-27 games, plus 0.10 for the home team (half the league’s home edge for midfielders that season), nothing at a neutral site, scaled to his share of his team’s midfielders’ goals in his games, 33%.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut into stretches, one a 10 games, where the dates leave the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.